Bright economic future predicted
By TAYLOR BROWN
tbrown@yourmvi.com
Economic forecaster Joel L. Naroff used to be known in his field as “Dr.” Doom because of pessimistic outlooks.
However, as impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic begin to fade, he is optimistic for the future of the local, regional and national economies, at least for this year.
During the third part of Washington County’s annual state of the economy presentation Thursday, moderated by Community Bank President/CEO John Montgomery, those who tuned in received good news from Naroff, who says he is “extraordinarily optimistic” about growth for the future.
With trillions of dollars in aid being funneled through the federal government on the heels of the pandemic, Naroff said the stimulus, which is currently being dispersed in a third round, has worked.
“There was one big surge in unemployment and an economic collapse of historic proportions, but there has been nothing but growth since then and I expect that to continue, at least for the remainder of 2021,” Naroff said. “I think, all things considered, you have to be really, really optimistic at this point.”
Naroff said when the COVID-19 pandemic took hold last March, everything took a hit.
“When the pandemic hit, inflation basically disappeared,” he said. “Now, as the pandemic begins to fade and the government continues to pile money in, growth is picking up and inflation, which was low, will start to pick up as well, getting back to normal.”
Inflation, he said, could increase between 2% to 3%.
“We had these extraordinarily low rates,” he said. “What’s happening right now, as things bounce back, we are moving toward normal interest rates. We have come a long way, but there is still a long way to go.
“The Fed’s strategy, for this specifically, was recognizing that they would make a mistake and that they are not perfect. It was a matter of raising them when they should, in the middle of the pandemic, or not raising them when they should.”
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