High-stakes 2026 elections will determine control of Pa. legislature

Battleground districts range from south-central Pennsylvania farm country to western rust belt towns to burgeoning suburbs outside major cities.

By STEPHEN CARUSO
Spotlight PA

HARRISBURG — Control of the Pennsylvania General Assembly will be on the ballot in 2026, setting up an expensive and far-reaching fight for the power to set policy in the Keystone State.

Democrats and Republicans will each vie to maintain control of one legislative chamber while attempting to flip the other. Battleground districts range from south-central Pennsylvania farm country to western rust belt towns to burgeoning suburbs outside major cities.

The wind is at Democrats’ backs. Gov. Josh Shapiro is up for reelection this year, meaning a popular incumbent will be at the top of the ticket. (The Republican establishment hopes state Treasurer Stacy Garrity will prove to be a stronger opponent than Doug Mastriano.)

And if historic trends hold, this year’s elections should favor Democrats. The party that does not hold the presidency usually does well in midterm elections.

You don’t have to look far to see the trend. Democrats won a massive upset in March when they flipped a Lancaster County state Senate seat. More recently, the party swept the contested state Supreme Court retention elections, buoyed by high turnout in Democratic-leaning cities and suburbs.

For many years, Democrats have failed to wrest control of the state Senate from the GOP despite big financial investments. Still, lawmakers and party operatives are bullish that a relatively new map and the Lancaster County flip could open a viable path.

That win, Democrats said at the time, was aided by widespread discontent with President Donald Trump and his agenda. State Sen. Vincent Hughes (D., Philadelphia) doesn’t think that discontent is going away.

“All of this starts with how your local senator will represent you in Harrisburg,” Hughes told Spotlight PA, “but there’s no way that you think anyone can escape what’s happening in Washington, D.C.”

With the thin divide in both chambers, Democrats and Republicans alike must defend vulnerable incumbents while attempting to flip seats. The high stakes have made these races increasingly expensive affairs, drawing in the commonwealth’s wealthiest special interests and deep-pocketed national donors.

Those who raise the funds aren’t shying away from this reality. Hughes said people from around the state and country “feel that an investment … is necessary to help the people in Pennsylvania and get the kind of government they deserve to have.”

‘Every race matters’

Democrats flipped the state House in 2022. Since then, lawmakers in the divided legislature have struggled to advance far-reaching legislation on energy, transportation, or health care. Even passing a statutorily required budget to fund schools, counties, and nonprofits proved to be a challenge.

The 2023-24 legislative session was among the least productive in decades in terms of total laws passed. This session is on a similar track, though legislators historically pick up the pace in years when their names are on the ballot.

The split legislature has found a path to create a new tax credit for working families, expand one for child care costs, and implement new rules to check powerful pharmaceutical middlemen. These were passed within or alongside the state’s budget.

To keep a seat at the table in policy negotiations, Republicans are digging in to protect their long-running control of the state Senate. As that chamber’s Appropriations Committee Chair Scott Martin (R., Lancaster) recently told PoliticsPA’s podcast, each session’s policy agenda “depends on the pieces on the chessboard that the voters send you.”

Republicans have almost continuously controlled the state Senate since the 1980s, and currently hold a 27-23 edge. Twenty-five even-numbered districts in the 50-member state Senate are on the ballot this year.

Democrats would be able to set the agenda and control what comes up for a vote if they tie the chamber 25-25, as Lt. Gov. Austin Davis holds the tiebreaking vote on procedural matters (Davis is also on the 2026 ballot). The party would not be able to pass bills without Republican support unless it picks up three or more seats.

Hughes said Democrats’ top priorities would be raising the minimum wage, funding public transit, and making higher education, housing, and child care more affordable.

Some proposals would likely require additional spending even as the state struggles to afford its basic expenses. Hughes, minority chair of the chamber’s Appropriations Committee, waved off revenue concerns. “No one’s talking about a tax increase,” he said.

These priorities mirror those of state House Democrats, who have advanced several bills to do much of the above, alongside efforts to tighten access to firearms, protect abortion access, and reform the state’s Election Code.

Most of those proposals have stalled in the Republican- controlled upper chamber, which has embraced its role as a check on Democrats. And the GOP Senate majority has advanced proposals with bipartisan support that have stalled out in the state House. That includes measures that would require local prosecutors to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement and force trans girls and women to play school sports on teams based on sex.

“Voters have repeatedly trusted the Republicans in the majority of the State Senate, who have a proven record of delivering results for Pennsylvanians,” Michael Straw, a spokesperson for the caucus’ campaign arm, said in an email. “We are prepared to run on our record of protecting taxpayer dollars, keeping costs low, and making communities safe in 2026 to defend and grow our majority.”

Control of the upper chamber will likely be decided by races in Lancaster County, the Lehigh Valley, the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, and the Poconos.

All 203 districts in the state House will be on the ballot, and races in the Lehigh Valley, Northeast Pennsylvania, and western coal country are again expected to be competitive.

“With the House split this closely, every race matters,” state Rep. Jamie Barton (R., Schuylkill), chair of the caucus’ election efforts, told Spotlight PA. He said the GOP would prioritize “getting more money back to Pennsylvania taxpayers,” “commonsense energy policies,” and “getting every child a high-quality education.”

“We are ready to run and win in every region of the commonwealth because voters continue to respond positively to our commonsense values,” he said.

Madeline Zann, executive director of state House Democrats’ campaign arm, said in an email that the committee is seeing momentum in candidate recruitment, “which is up from the previous two cycles — so we look forward to being competitive across the commonwealth.”

The Trump effect

Republicans are aware of a potential enthusiasm gap.

James Julius is a tech entrepreneur and Republican state House candidate who plans to run for a seat outside of Pittsburgh. He ran in 2024 when Trump was on the ballot but came up 16 percentage points short against a longtime Democratic incumbent. Support was much stronger for Trump, who lost the district by just under 4 percentage points, according to Department of State data.

With the incumbent now retiring, the seat is open, which means it should be easier to flip. Still, getting Trump’s voters to turn out without his name leading the ticket is “going to be one of the biggest challenges,” Julius told Spotlight PA.

“He’s not going to be on the ballot for Republicans, but Donald Trump is always on the ballot for Democrats,” he said.

The swingy nature of Pennsylvania’s politics is also affecting how some Democratic candidates think about their policy priorities.

Democrat Kofi Osei, a Montgomery County township commissioner running to flip a key state Senate district, wants to prioritize giving more power to local governments to help address pressing issues facing their constituents.

That includes giving local officials more taxing authority to fund public transit or ensuring state education funding still flows even without a budget deal.

Democrats, Osei told Spotlight PA, “rarely have a trifecta.”

“We have to set up these Democratic areas to be successful, even with [a] hostile state government.”

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