Republican voters drive increase in mail ballot requests

The uptick could be a sign that this year’s judicial retention races are stirring interest in the 2025 election.

This article is made possible through Spotlight PA’s collaboration with Votebeat, a nonpartisan news organization covering local election administration and voting.

By CARTER WALKER
Votebeat

HARRISBURG — With the window now closed for Pennsylvanians to request a ballot to vote by mail, state data shows voters of both parties are turning to that method in record numbers — and Republicans have seen a particularly strong rise.

According to data from the Pennsylvania Department of State, as of Monday, more than 1.1 million voters had requested a mail ballot. That’s up 17% from the 2021 municipal election, the most comparable recent election, and up 9% from 2023, when higher-profile local races such as district attorney and county commissioner were on the ballot.

The increases could be a sign that voters are more interested in the judicial retention races on this year’s ballots than they have been in other races in recent municipal elections.

The last day to request a ballot was Tuesday.

“The numbers struck me,” said Chris Borick, a professor of political science at Muhlenberg College in Allentown. “Having that type of activity at this point does suggest that voters are a bit more engaged this time around.”

Republican voters appear to be driving the trend. While Democrats still make up the majority of mail ballot requests, 66%, Republicans now make up a greater share than they did four years ago. The number of mail ballots requested by GOP voters has risen to roughly 277,000 from 205,000 in 2021, a 35% increase. The Democrats’ total, by comparison, is up just 9% As of Monday, voters of both parties had returned roughly 52.5% of their ballots.

This is despite Republican leaders sending mixed messages to voters on the safety of mail voting.

President Donald Trump has derided mail voting as susceptible to fraud and said in an August social media post that he would “lead a movement” to get rid of it. But local and state Republicans have been encouraging people to vote by mail.

Just last week, Rep. Dan Meuser, a Republican once considered a top contender for governor, promoted the option in a social media post shared by the state party.

“Things change for a lot of us, so if you can vote early, vote early,” he said. “Send your mail ballot in.”

While the Republican interest in mail voting has been growing steadily in recent election cycles, the increase for this year’s typically low-turnout municipal election may have to do with the year’s highest-profile race: a judicial retention election that will decide whether several appellate judges initially elected as Democrats get to stay on the bench for 10 more years.

Republicans have been urging voters to vote “No” on three state Supreme Court justices, and two lower court justices. They hope a no vote will open up the possibility of flipping the ideological majority of the state Supreme Court court during the 2027 municipal election. Millions of dollars have already been spent in the race on a type of election that historically received little attention.

The state Supreme Court plays a crucial role in elections, settling high-profile legal disputes. Republicans are citing some of those recent rulings as a reason to vote no.

Borick, the Muhlenberg professor, said so far, he is seeing signs that the retention races are driving greater interest in this election, compared with previous municipal elections. However, he said the numbers of mail ballot requests aren’t a definitive indicator.

The ultimate question, which can’t be answered until Election Day, is whether they represent an actual increase in turnout or just voters who typically go to the polls shifting to voting by mail, he said.

“I’m confident that the Republican efforts to reach out to the voters and make them more comfortable with mail ballots has shown some results,” he said. “Now, again, will those be some different voters? I think Republicans are optimistic it will maybe get on the margins, some folks that wouldn’t have shown up…and therefore add to their totals.”

Carter Walker is a reporter for Votebeat in partnership with Spotlight PA. Contact Carter at cwalker@votebeat. org.