Small signs of hope

The election was a devastating defeat for Democrats.

But does it foreshadow an enduring realignment of American politics? Probably not.

There’s plenty of evidence that voters chose between two distinctive personal brands: Donald Trump, who they liked, and the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris team, which they did not.

If you look at down-ballot races in key states, the Democrats did pretty well.

And neither of these brands — Trump or Biden-Harris — will ever be on a national ballot again. Four years from now, and even during the midterm elections in 2026, both parties will start with fairly clean slates.

This does not diminish the scale of the Republican victory. For the next two years at least, the GOP will control both the Senate and the House. Add the conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and Democrats will be left with one fragile source of leverage in Washington: the Senate filibuster.

Moreover, there’s plenty of bad news for the Democrats in the election returns, especially their underperformance with Latinos and young voters. They took many positions on social issues that only reinforced their image as a party of snobbish coastal elites looking down on the rest of the country.

But if you look at the results from the bottom up, not the top down, a somewhat different picture emerges. In the seven swing states that Trump won, five held Senate races, and Democrats won four of them — in Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada, losing only Pennsylvania.

A sixth swing state, North Carolina, had no Senate race, but it did elect a governor, and Democrat Josh Stein won by more than 800,000 votes. The Republicans ran a terrible candidate, but Democrats also captured four other statewide offices, including lieutenant governor and attorney general. If Harris had carried those five states where other Democrats did win, she’d be president- elect.

While he lost his Senate seat, Democrat Jon Tester of Montana ran 7 points ahead of the national ticket. Another Senate loser, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, beat Harris by 2.5 points.

Democratic winners also outpaced their presidential candidate: Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota by 5.2 points, Martin Heinrich in New Mexico by 3.2 points, Tim Kaine in Virginia by 2.3 points.

When they decided on issues, voters often favored the Democratic view. Ten states considered constitutional amendments to protect abortion rights, and in seven, the pro-abortion rights side won. In Florida, which Trump carried with 56.1%, 57% voted to overturn the state’s draconian rule that bans abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, but 60% was needed to remove the statute.

Kentucky and Nebraska, two states Trump won easily, rejected school voucher measures. Alaska, Missouri and Nebraska mandated employers to provide their workers with paid medical leave.

The original sin for Democrats was the stubborn and selfish decision by a frail and failing Biden to run for a second term, while 7 in 10 Americans consistently maintained that the country was headed in the wrong direction. Simply put, this was a change election, and the Democrats were on the wrong side of that basic and boisterous impulse.

It wasn’t just the Democrats. Four years before, Trump fell victim to the same hangover from the COVID-19 pandemic, a deeply negative national mood fueled by rising prices and falling optimism.

Ruling parties around the world — from Japan and Germany to New Zealand and the United Kingdom — have suffered similar fates for similar reasons.

Biden’s disastrous decision deprived the Democrats of the chance to pick a different leader, someone untainted by voter disappointment, perhaps a governor rooted outside of Washington. By the time Biden was forced to withdraw, after his dismal debate performance, the party had no choice but to nominate Harris, who ran a decent campaign but was fatally wounded by her association with such an unpopular administration.

Another point to remember: Trump is an unusually talented politician and performer, on the order of Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, whose personal appeal can transcend issues or party loyalties. And history shows that parties find it hard to duplicate their success once those powerful personalities leave the scene.

Reagan was succeeded by his vice president, George H.W. Bush, but four years later, Bill Clinton beat him.

Obama’s chosen successor, Hillary Clinton, lost to Trump.

The Democrats trailed badly. But the next time, they will not have to run with Biden or Harris — or against Trump. And under the surface of their defeat, there are small signs of hope.

Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.