Harris’ VP pick could be the key to winning battleground state — and maybe White House

Whoever Vice President Kamala Harris selects to be her running mate might not have a major impact on voters across the country, but he or she could prove pivotal in their home state, political experts said.

In the case of candidates in swing states such as Pennsylvania or Arizona, Harris’ decision could have a major impact on the outcome of the presidential election in November.

Berwood Yost, who oversees polling at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, said top contenders such as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly could make a big difference in the election outcome if they can help the Democratic ticket win their closely contested states.

“If you pick someone in a tightly contested state and it gives you even a minor boost, it could make a big difference,” Yost said.

That could be particularly true in Pennsylvania, a state that could put a candidate “over the top” to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the White House, Yost said.

Candidates for vice president have only a modest impact on voters, who are most concerned with the top of the ticket, said Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenburg College in Allentown.

But in swing states, where the presidential race could be decided by the thinnest of margins, even a small impact can be critical, Borick said.

“In places like Pennsylvania that have been decided by a point or less in recent elections, a vice president choice that does have some modest impact on voter preferences could have a much more meaningful impact on the overall outcome of the race,” Borick said.

With Shapiro considered a top candidate for the spot, Borick said, Harris might be hoping to use a native son of the Keystone State to clinch its crucial 19 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania, Borick said, is “almost a necessity” for Harris to win the White House in November.

“If your goal is to win Pennsylvania — and Shapiro can help you do that — of course you would give him deep consideration for the nod,” Borick said.

The candidate who won Pennsylvania won the White House eight times in the past 10 presidential elections.

George Mifflin Dallas, the only vice president from Pennsylvania, secured his home state’s votes to help lead President James Polk to victory in the 1844 election.

Recent polling shows the presidential race having tightened since President Joe Biden dropped out and Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Harris has gained on Republican nominee Donald Trump in six of seven swing states, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

Harris leads Trump in Michigan by 11 percentage points and 2 points in Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, according to the poll conducted July 24-28. Trump leads Harris by 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 2 points in North Carolina. They are tied in Georgia.

In recent races, vice president candidates have often won their home states. Since 2000, only two vice presidential hopefuls — Democrat John Edwards of North Carolina and Republican Paul Ryan of Wisconsin — have seen their home states opt for the opposing party in the presidential race.

But correlation doesn’t equate to causation, cautioned Kristen Coopie, director of pre-law at Duquesne University and a political science professor.

In many instances, she said, candidates have picked a running mate from a state that already was essentially guaranteed to lean toward that party. Those states would have voted the same way, even if the vice president wasn’t from the state.

“You certainly can’t count on the entire state going for you because you picked a native son,” Coopie said.

Still, she said, it can help.

Vice presidents from key swing states can help mobilize voters close to home, rally political organizations behind the ticket and guide the presidential candidate in how best to resonate with a voting base they already know well, she said.

That’s what former President Donald Trump is hoping running mate J.D. Vance can do in his native Ohio, Coopie said — and it’s likely something Harris will consider for her own pick.

There are other benefits a running mate can bring to the table beyond a boost in their home state, experts said.

Selecting someone more moderate could signal to voters a willingness to collaborate with people of all political persuasions. Candidates can be crucial for campaigning by acting as a surrogate when the presidential nominee can’t be everywhere at once. And they can help fill gaps in a presidential candidate’s resume.

Presidential candidates, Coopie said, also are looking for running mates who can make a real impact on the administration once they’re in office.

A good vice president, she said, is someone who can “hit the ground running and work with the president, work with Congress and other political leaders to push forward the presidential agenda” once they’re in the White House.